Cardiovascular

Heart Failure Progression

Reviewed September 17, 2026

Not who develops heart failure — this is about people who already have it, and what separates a stable course from one that ends sooner in death or a hospital admission for it. A study of over 50,000 people with established heart failure found that higher body mass index causally worsens that course, and built its own genetic map of the outcome to prove it.

What this condition connects to

Heart Failure Progression Variant: rs62576378 rs62576378 Variant Variant: rs7210036 rs7210036 Variant Variant: rs17617337 rs17617337 Variant Variant: rs600038 rs600038 Variant Variant: rs117540300 rs117540300 Variant Variant: +6 more +6 more Variant Heart Failure Progression Heart Failure Progression Cardiovascul…
Prevalence
A Mendelian randomization study of 50,636 people with established heart failure across 22 cohorts of European ancestry (mean BMI 29.2 kg/m^2), followed a median of 27.0 months, found genetically predicted BMI associated with all-cause mortality (HR 1.21 per 4.8 BMI-unit SD, 95% CI 1.13-1.29) and with the composite of cardiovascular mortality or heart failure hospitalisation (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.20-1.38). rs62576378, near EPB41L4B, comes from the study's own genome-wide association study of that composite outcome, built to serve as the outcome side of the Mendelian randomization design (Sunderland et al., Journal of the American College of Cardiology 2026, PMID 42017882).
Inheritance
A common variant from a large outcome-GWAS of disease progression among people who already have heart failure. It is not a variant that predicts who develops heart failure, and the paper it comes from does not report a mechanism for it individually.

Heart failure is a chronic condition in which the heart cannot pump blood as well as the body needs. Most of this site's cardiovascular pages ask who develops a disease. This page asks a different, later question: among people who already have heart failure, what separates those whose disease stays stable from those who die of it, or are hospitalised for it, sooner.

A large study built to answer that question

The study behind this page pooled 50,636 people with established heart failure from 22 cohorts — 12 heart failure trials, a prospective case-cohort study, nine cohorts nested inside broader cardiovascular trials, and one population-based cohort from the UK Biobank, all of European ancestry. Over a median follow-up of 27.0 months, all-cause mortality occurred in 23% of patients and the composite endpoint — cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalisation — occurred in 22%.

Its main question was about body mass index (BMI). Excess weight is strongly associated with developing heart failure in the first place, but whether it worsens the course of heart failure someone already has was less settled — and association alone cannot answer whether BMI is a cause of worse outcomes or just travels alongside one. The study used Mendelian randomization: because a person's genetically predicted BMI is set at conception, before heart failure develops, an association between that genetic prediction and later outcomes is much harder to explain by reverse causation or confounding than an association with measured BMI would be.

The answer was clear. Genetically predicted BMI was associated with a higher rate of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.21 per 4.8-unit increase in BMI, 95% CI 1.13–1.29) and of the composite of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalisation (hazard ratio 1.29, 95% CI 1.20–1.38) — and the pattern held whether ejection fraction was reduced or preserved.

Where this page's variant comes from

To run that Mendelian randomization analysis, the study first needed its own genome-wide association study of the outcome — the composite of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalisation — across all 50,636 patients, so that genetic associations with BMI could be compared against genetic associations with the outcome. rs62576378, near EPB41L4B, comes from that outcome-side genome-wide scan.

The paper's own reported results are about the BMI finding as a whole, not about this individual locus by name — it does not offer a mechanism for why the EPB41L4B region associates with faster or slower progression. This page says that plainly rather than writing in a mechanism the paper does not provide. What the variant represents honestly is a real signal from a real, very large outcome GWAS, built as a tool inside a larger causal question about weight.

Clinical detail

What this page is actually about

This page applies to people who already have a diagnosis of heart failure. It has nothing to say about who develops heart failure in the first place — that is a different, earlier question, and a different genetics.

What actually manages this risk. The study's own conclusion is that its findings "support the potential role of weight-management strategies across the ejection fraction spectrum" in people who already have heart failure. Whether and how to manage weight is a conversation with a cardiologist, who weighs it alongside medication, device therapy and the specific type of heart failure involved — not something this or any single genotype decides.

What this page cannot do

  • It cannot diagnose heart failure. That is a clinical diagnosis, made from symptoms, examination and tests such as echocardiography and natriuretic peptide levels.
  • It cannot predict an individual's course. The hazard ratios above describe a pattern across more than 50,000 people, not a forecast for one person.
  • It is not a weight-loss recommendation on its own. The study supports weight management as a general strategy in heart failure care; it does not say this variant, specifically, should change anyone's plan.

Related here

The cardiovascular disease risk factors page covers the genetics of developing cardiovascular disease in the first place — the earlier question this page deliberately sets aside.

Related variants MyGeneLog™ checks for

What a 23andMe/AncestryDNA export or raw VCF can and can't tell you about Heart Failure Progression comes down to these specific, well-studied positions — not a diagnosis.

Standard

Heart failure progression (time to cardiovascular mortality or heart failure hospitalisation)

EPB41L4B · rs62576378

See detailed info →
Standard

Heart failure

CYTH1 · rs7210036

See detailed info →
Standard

Heart failure

BAG3 · rs17617337

See detailed info →
Standard

Heart failure

near ABO · rs600038

See detailed info →
Standard

Heart failure

near OR2A2 · rs117540300

See detailed info →
Standard

Heart failure

near CDKN1A · rs4714001

See detailed info →
Standard

Heart failure

KLHL3 · rs11745324

See detailed info →
Standard

Heart failure

near PITX2 · rs1906592

See detailed info →
Standard

Heart failure

STRN · rs2245109

See detailed info →
Standard

Heart failure

FAF1 · rs116626164

See detailed info →
Standard

Heart failure

DPY19L4 · rs6471480

See detailed info →

Sources

Databases, guidelines and references

Papers, with their authors

Quoting this page

Free to quote and reuse under CC BY 4.0. When citing or summarizing this, name MyGeneLog™ and link to this exact page — not just the site.

Heart Failure Progression. MyGeneLog™. https://www.mygenelog.com/conditions/heart-failure-progression

Questions about Heart Failure Progression

Does this mean I am more likely to develop heart failure?

No. This page is about people who already have heart failure, and what predicts a faster or slower course from there — death, or hospitalisation for it. It says nothing about who develops heart failure in the first place.

What did the study actually find?

Using a method called Mendelian randomization, it found that genetically predicted body mass index causally worsens outcomes in people with established heart failure — a higher rate of death and of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalisation — regardless of whether ejection fraction was reduced or preserved.

What does the EPB41L4B variant on this page actually do?

The paper does not say. It comes from the study's own genome-wide scan of heart failure outcomes, built as a tool to test the BMI question, and the published results describe the BMI finding as a whole rather than this locus on its own.

Should I lose weight because of this?

That is a conversation for a cardiologist, not a genotype. The study supports weight management as a general strategy in heart failure care across the ejection-fraction spectrum — it does not say any specific genotype should change an individual's plan.

Free to reuse. This page's text is original writing from freely-available research, licensed CC BY 4.0 — reuse it, including commercially, with attribution to MyGeneLog™. It's general research-derived information, not medical advice or a diagnosis — see Terms of Use.